Parameters For Future Energy Price Scenarios

Parameters For hereafter Energy Price ScenariosThe ground rules of divination methods which assert on broadening of tr windups, says godet is unrealistic when the nature is an ever-changing and the phenomena which need to accounted be complex and related. 1Taking the year 2025 as a near end to analyze choice future increments and as well as to assure and reproducible framework using formal models and data to and harmonize regional aspirations with global possibilities, I take the following qualitative parameters into account.1) Population To relate population harvest-feast and competency demand, the link amid population and free vital force involves two mediatory connecting elements to be recognized.They relate to the changes in financial development. Typically, the greater a regions per capita revenue, the greater its per capita usance of brawn. 22) Environmental taxes Taxes on heftiness consumption and carbon taxes reflect instruments which subject the polluting rel eases, by economists. Practicing purlieual policies, the increasing number of Western European countries has utilize taxes based on the emissions or zip fastener content of the cogency products. These unimpeachably influence the talent set scenarios in the near future. 33) Investments in zero grant empyreanOver the period of years 2001-2030 the total enthronization essential for push solelyton supply infrastructure worldwide is estimated around $16 trillion.4.This enthr acement must be used to en bouffant supply force and to replace present and future supply amenities that pull up stakes be drained or become let step to the fore-of-date during the projection period. The dynamism securities industry of the world is expected to rise by 2/3rds over the a al nonp beilting 30years. Energy infrastructure coronation is a cardinal driver for the harvest-tide of the economy. Energy-investment requirements result account for an important fact of total home(prenominal) investment in Russia and other passing economies, Africa and the hydrocarbon-rich Middle East. Between primary dodo force outs, the ceiling intensity of investment varies considerably. Natural brag is about six times more than outstanding-intensive than coal for equivalent energy supplied. 5 This is a almighty consideration for capital-constrained countries. Future investment needs be subject to round uncertainties, including macro economical conditions, energy prices, environmental policies, geopolitical factors, technological developments. 64) Energy engineering cost Advanced energy technologies spate influence immense- termination energy investment outlook. Due to steep deliverance costs in an threatening grocery store, the fuel costs of travel in hydrogen fuel render vehicles would greater than those of the alternative conventional fuels, but they could ultimately become oppose to gasoline vehicles. displace cell vehicles be prone to engine room development hurdles however, thither should be mountainous decrease in price of owning an automobiles forwards fuel celled vehicles become attr alive(p) to the general public. Fuel terminus is excessively a problem. The extensive use of H2 has to be intervened by the disposal to im evoke its use, refueling facilities and vehicles. Nuclear advances commode lead to designs with less capital costs, shorter construction time and flexible operation, so improving the economics of thermo thermonuclear electricity. There is widespread interest worldwide in a quaternate generation of nuclear power reactors, though public opposition so-and-so continue. 75) Energy technology airing rates Energy Technology diffusion is a sophisticated process presenting diverse dimensions for analysis. In dividing the study aspects of technology diffusion, it is in the scope of this paper to analyze the process in various dimensions. It sess have a huge influence on the set scenario.6) Climatic Policies The energy policies ar constantly changing, especially in proportion to climate change and the energy transition. The energy markets argon lacking regulations, thither is an maturation in the demand energy from re advancedable resources and there ar price hikes. And further changes atomic number 18 yet to come into picture. Many of these improvements be interrelated and it is difficult to foresee their impact on strategies. However, with an affirmative come along to bare-ass improvements and accessing the right skill we tramp minimize risks and avail opportunities.7) act of terrorist act Through 2025, internal skirmishes threat the stability around the globe. Terrorist attacks are at one time posing serious threats to the worlds economy and energy efficiency.Between straightaway and 2025 terrorism leave behind grow sophistically to a new height which b go ones the world pink of my John and harmony, indirectly effecting the energy efficiency and price scenarios. Due to these internal threats the local anesthetic administrations are tending to invest more on internal certification sophistications and hence diverting the energy investments. We kindle expect more lethal terrorist attacks to occur in the future. therefore, terrorism gouge be considered as a threat to the energy efficiency. 88) Natural Calamities No nation, expert or forecasting technique can foresee a natural disaster and proscribe its damage. Natural calamities can invariably affect a nations economy and energy stability. Energy price scenarios are highly influenced by these disasters. The effects embarrass the diversion of investments to alternate housing provisions for disaster struck colonies. sleep measures have to be initiated and continued which includes huge energy consumption poignant the energy price scenario.9) National and Local Politics Government yield is essential for energy policies. Creative technologies are to be experimented and implemented under the pa tronage of the government hence the frontrunners are planning to invest remind of their economy for these implementations. Since the global warming and other issues became serious issues of political interests, the government willing be a substantial issue in energy pricing.10) Cumulative primary energy consumption and renewable energy employmentCumulative energy demand and efficiency can be seen as an indicator of environmental influences to estimate the exhaustion of energy resources and usage of unwashed energy sources considering a whole lifecycle. Prospective barbel al styles emphasizes on consumptions in the future leading to formulating theories which in return help quantification this parameter. 911) cultural effects Generally living cultures and groups grow continuously and affect one or the other forms of environmental activities at the lowest levels. For an example, if a person has a big car and a small car he would generally prefer to use a bigger car.Let it be f or prestige or whatever, our culture is that way. So, cultural effects also cephalalgia the energy price scenario of the world. Consumer culture plays a weighty section in the energy needs and mathematical product.Ans. 1b) Identification of Quantifiable ParametersAll the qualitative parameters discussed in the previous section are non quantifiable but about are definitely quantifiable.Population.Environmental taxes.Investments in energy deliver sectorEnergy technology cost.Cultural effects.Ans. 1c) Godets PropositionI moderately tick off with this specific aspect of Godets proposition.Qualitative forecasting techniques generally depend on expert opinions. These can be applied where historical data is available. scarce the historical data cannot directly interpret the future. Quantitative forecasting methods are used when departed data is available. In the quantitative forecasting techniques the spring relationship is also taken into account.Qualitative forecasting emphasize s more than on prediction of future through the present scenario. It can manytimes be too erroneous to depend upon.The cause is that predicting the future has always been an probability for us to let our minds run free. Eventually we will be keen or sad to see technological development which will get down unforeseen changes. As market by Godet, imagination can shit but sometimes it can follow a kink. Extrapolation of the prevailing trend sometimes leads to futuristic thoughts.These, sometimes, can be accurate too. But I consider that extrapolation of the variable a good method rather than a complete extension of a trend. But, we cannot alone depend on our predictions always. Future had never been predicted exactly and never will be.We cannot leave our posterity with predictions single but we must prepare them for any lieu. Prospective onslaught can be a solution to broaden our perspective towards the future but anything cannot be predicted. 10Ans. 1d) Commercialization of energy efficiency in Japan1. Although some(prenominal) firms whitethorn be developing energy technologies and might have super features with great scientific advances but the mercenaryisation is a bug in the ear of much(prenominal) firms. Market-adaptation skills and institutions to take benefits are still scarce.In fudge 4 of paper by Osamu Kimura on Commercialization of energy- efficacious technologies in Japan, some technologies which failed to get commercialized due to lack of marketing skeletal models. Michel Godets ideas on commercialization and qualitative approach could have definitely better the commercialization potential of the technologies which failed to get commercialized due to marketing deficiencies.The main worry is a deficiency of commercial awareness where the advanced, inspirational and market related abilities to turn an idea or design into a dependable commercial able product. Specifically quality is the lacking factor. These market-related deficiencies are persistent in any economy. 11Godet believed in an eight correspond strategic approach, which he called a prospective approach, can be profitable in commercializing technologies to the core.The first stage hawked with the socio-organizational context which sets the tenor for the entire process. Technologies which have failed at this level cannot move any further because it justifies technology and tell us why it is shut ind.The sulphur stage hawked a 360 degree x-ray oft the enterprise, its experience/experience, and its fertile capacities. Such a verdict will be effective in commercialization since the trademark of the developer can also affect the extent of commercialization.The terce stage emphasizes on the structural diagnosis of the enterprise, whereas, the quartetth analyses the dynamics of an enterprise, its strengths and weaknesses and so forth Technologies the equal estrus Transport System using vacuum breakup which were introduced and failed to get commerci alized due to organizational instabilities can be improved of their potential if they are introduced by a more stable organization, fit to the second, third and fourth stages in the prospective approach.12The fifth stage attempts to attach certainty in key questions about the future with experts advice and expand the risks, trends etc.tera Technologies like High Efficiency Heat Pump Using Multi Fuel Engine and High Efficiency Heat Pump Using hydrogen Absorbing Alloy, which were dependent on fuels not available in the foreseen future, can be effectively commercialized using businesslike fuel rally on expert advice.The sixth seventh and one-eighth stages dealt in compatibility and implementation. additional significant features of commercialization are constant product maturity development and cost decline. Technologies like Compression/Absorption hybrid heat pump, Heat recovery from slag process in steel plants, Heat enrapture system using surfactants and Absorption pump us ing natural refrigerants can be commercialized if they successfully pass through the sixth, seventh and eighth stages of the prospective approach. 122) I completely accept the conclusions of the study. There were mainly four conclusions of the study. First, the government funding for private RD needs to be in long tem.The creation of new technology frequently plays a significant role as a source of economic evolution. Furthermore, social return is always greater than the private return and hence all countries motivation to introduce their technologies through government funding so that the technology can reach the public far well. wherefore such(prenominal) technology introductions receive more loans and subsidies. Two of the bases which lead to such a technology are market fluctuations and underinvestment in such technologies. Whenever a technology is under RD, such a technology cannot be placed under secrecy and hence it will gain public interest and in turn the government fund ing can initialize its commercialization to a better level than a private company.Public RD funding surges the total RD expenditure only if the contributions importunity firms to research and deploy projects that would otherwise recognized on a littler scale. So, the government funding to the private RD has to be formulated to belong term so as to assist effective commercialization.Second, responding to and influencing market demand is a key to commercialization. Commercialization is the process by which people, responding to markets, transform new knowledge and technology into economically successful products, processes, or religious services. Knowledge, sessions and topical studies suggest that a national method to commercialization should highlight the demand for RD and technology and form plans close to their marketplaces.Third, the deployment policy should complement the public RD in the commercialization phase. effectuation at the pre commercial stage is the beginning of th e commercial distribution. This has to be make analogous to the RD so as to find out the pros and cons of the technology in the commercial sector.Finally, assessment of cost and market demand. The profitability of innovation depends on the costs of commercialization. In some industries or technologies, the sheer size of the investment required is the largest single hurdle to commercialization. Only in recess markets, with less competition and consideration of costs, can small plants compete successfully in these industries.In other industries, however, capital costs do not present as great a barrier to commercialization. . Especially in new industries that are expected to demonstrate strong learning- curve effects, determination makers often cannot determine how quickly production costs will drop to a desired level. Uncertainties regarding cost also enter the decision-making process. 13Hence arrangements have to be made in say to develop commercial stock. This helps the economy and also the interests of the geographical analysts. The ongoing investments in energy terminus show an urgent need of energy storage.There have to be a regulation or a regulatory committee memory an eye on the investments in infrastructure which proves a potential alternative for the energy supply in the energy crisis.Greater efficiency of energy throughout its usage has to improve a lot in order to lessen the energy usage and use the available energy effectively and efficiently.Answer to question 2 upcountry energy market mandate according to the demand price scenario. The OPEC oil price rise in 19732a) Gazproms supremacy over the European natural gas market is a growing concern among Europes policy makers. In restricting European investors from the Russian market, challenging access to regulatory distributions on the European market, while at the same time exercising its influence upon the CIS states, Russia has showed it undependability as a long-term provider. requirement planning faced a hindrance by lack of lucid comparison amongst the known definitions and the operative measures which were taken. In this context I assume myself as a large manufacturer (large energy run throughr) and puff my response.Early in the crisis, Europes gas industry showed its capability to manage with several(prenominal) features of the problem being faced by Europe. The presence of transaction covenants and supply contracts permitted establishments to work together to preserve sources to internal customers, schools and hospitals, during the un miscellanyest days of emergency. 14*.Manufacturers are withstanding high energy prices and supply cuts (as in this case where Gazprom cuts its energy supplies or increase price by 200%), where energy is only a small component in the cost of production. Usually the problems that persist for a large manufacturer when there is an energy supply cut or a price hike areGenerally the lack of fuel-switching capability in the cardinal equipment (which requires a lot of capital investment).Unattractive attributes of some energy-saving equipment, such as differences in quality or comfort and high cost. Energy-savings may be less important than other factor-savings.Energy storage sooner the energy crisis occurs (before the supplies are cut).Investments to buy more energy from the supplier before the energy supplies are cut.Transportation of fuel and transfer of raw materials/products. meddling for alternating sources, and pipeliningDemand at alternative sources.Being a large manufacturer I am putting forward the following solutions, The Internal Market Principle, which one part of the market should help in proviso another part at a period when there is scarcity of energy must prove valuable.There is a lack of interdependence in the EU. This has to develop to a significant scale where the EU relies much on itself rather than the Middle East countries for energy supplies.Fuel transition from have to be modify i n order to make EU a comfortable, sustainable and competitive in the energy market.A more interconnected market is always required where the flexibility and security becomes a major aspect. More fuel switching options have to be introduced in order to reduce the risks that the reliability on a single supplier introduces.Gas storage is a useful task when there is an energy scarcity has to be implemented which plays an important role in decent market functioning under energy hindrances and supply cuts.The EU has to hold the line relying on a single supplier and diversify its importing scheme for securing its energy needs.Increasing dependence on gaseous fuels for electricity and domestic heating, with no or limited availabilities of fuel switching technologies is a greater risk.Developments have to be made in implementing renewable energy and enact fuel switching.Transportation has to be made more energy efficient for greater energy efficiency.Developing technological innovations such as self-powering unmortgaged electrical power systems which extract the required electrical supply from active vacuum and readily scalable in size and yield.Measures have to be taken by the respective governments or the organizations to crash the scraps that rose among the producer and the consumer. Geo-political issues come into discussion here, which is out of our interest.Limiting the production and energy usage until the scrap is disruptd is another option.15Ans.2b) In the above response, I believed in going with both out of the stripe solutions and a partially conservative, additive approaches together.As manufacturer, one of my key duties to foresee a situation and change accordingly for the sustainable development of my organization until it achieves success. If an organization is do well, it is evident for us that there is nothing wrong with the situation and it is utterly under control. But still we need to extrapolate continuously and new ideas to secure the perfect condition of the organization. Innovation requires us to think out of bounds and it requires unlocking creativity.In the above context I searched for other possibilities of energy crisis and so I came up with effective solutions which may prove useful in the future also. For example, fuel switching is an out of the concussion solution. Adapting to the energy changes with new technology and energy efficient systems is an out of the case solution. approach path to the advantages of idea out of the box in order to achieve service excellence every business operation expresses strategies and measures which have been or are being accomplished in their particular industry by their rejoinder parts or all these systems have remained standing since time because there is a mindset that the customers are most contented and pleased with the way that they are being aided. In certain occasions schemes and measures are a result of involvement of an individual or a team who obviously a re the achievers of the trade and are considered to be born geniuses who are totally in agreement with the pulse of their customers. This sometimes can be a conservative approach. It will work well when the situations are a geminate of the past. In the above solutions, storing energy, limiting the production and internal market principles are some examples of conservative approaches. Incremental approaches are primarily counterpoint result solutions between the consumer and the supplier.All such circumstances are very unfit and waiting to bounce back at a slimmest blunder.Interactions with customers, policy makers can be made interesting by thinking out of the box and adopting systems which are efficient when compared to those in the conservative approach.Ans.2c) I believe that an incremental approach is the best solution to reduce the ill effect created by inflexible market issues. This approach takes the initiative in solving the conflict by offering help to the conflicting p arties. It can also prove useful to threaten both the parties and force them to take timely decisions in resolving the conflict. It also provides the conflicting parties with optional solutions along with their advantages and disadvantages. It, however cannot resolve all conflicts but it will definitely provide some attention in at least reducing the magnitude ill effects. This kind of approach recognizes that gradual long term approach offers the best solutions to such conflicts. It also recognizes that dividing the conflict into parts and solving each part incrementally is a sound approach.The incremental approach recommends the parties to examine the full context of the conflict and recognize the unpleasant effects of the conflict. Sometimes this incremental approach involves functions like making negotiation between the conflicting parties, in smaller issues and wherefore move on to the more adverse issues. Fractionalization is employed in shift the issues into smaller parts and dealing with them one by one. This incremental approach has its own advantages and disadvantages. Braking up the inflexible issues and using negotiations to solve the conflicts are some of the advantages. But the conflict resolving techniques of this approach can bring up many other problems and can sometimes utterly fail in conflict resolving.Conservative approach is a one in which the parties will insist more on conservation compared to conflict resolving. This approach can work well only for a small, certain period of time. In this kind of approach there are no attempts made to resolve the conflict. So there can arise a situation where the conflict grow up to peaks and irresolvable. Conservative approach can go along with the incremental approach for the best performance.While negotiating with the parties, following an incremental approach, an interior conservative approach have to be followed. This can continue until the problem is solved. It also has its own set of advanta ges and disadvantages.Service brilliance can also be achieved by doing accurate things in a diverse trend or simply by improving the quality of your procedures by thinking out of the box. An approach is said to be out of the box when that is new, imaginative and cannot be related to normal or conventional approach. Similarly a technology which is invented through unlocking creativity is known as an out of the box technology. Approaches leading to such out of the box technologies are known as an out of the box technological approach. An out of the box technological approach is different from straight approaches in various ways. Technologies which evolve from conventional approaches are necessarily improvements of past technologies. They depend a lot on the past variables and past attributes. Such approaches generally attract people/customers who are raise in improvements to the previous technology.Markets to such conventional technologies follow trends almost homogeneous to those followed by their parent technologies. These trends can sometimes be variable attributing those to testy results to the customer satisfaction, extent of improvement etc. Whereas, technologies which are out of the box are new and creative. There can be some implications to such creative inventions. Technologies that are out of the box need not be entirely new. When they follow a familiar theory, their implementation may be different when they follow a familiar implementation, their background and theory may be different when they follow a familiar theory and a familiar implementation, their field of application may be different or new. They can sometimes be entirely new too. Markets trends to such out of the box technologies are very unpredictable. The procedures that are made or are being followed cannot be inflexible and they cannot deal with out of the book solutions for every problem. All the initial steps of careful screening would mean that the poster dealing with the client s is armed with the right kind of boldness that is required in service industry. There is a very thin line between being elastic while providing furnishing the customers necessities and desires and breaking the rules and procedures in the apparel of dower people. 16Ans.2d) I feel that foreseeing a situation which is already being seen is not an intellectual way of answering this question. Nowadays we are already in a situation where we need to do with less, in terms of capital goods, travel, and levels of comfort for the benefit of all. Presently we are personally reducing the usage of plastic, this is because plastic cannot be decomposed and when we try to decompose or burn it, it will produce harmful fumes. So this can be one of the cases where we are reducing our comfort levels for the sake of others. Instead, we are using alternative methods like replacing plastic with paper. We are even keen on implementing the leash rs (reduce, reuse and recycle).Similarly, lighting is essen tial to a modern society. Lights have modify the way we live, our efforts and our entertainment. Today, about five percent of the energy used in the world is for lighting our homes, buildings, and streets.Nowadays we reduced the amount of energy we consume for lighting, intentionally or unintentionally, we have begun using energy efficient systems. decrease energy usage or switching to energy efficient methods can be efficient.In the last 100 years, appliances have revolutionized the way we leave out energy and our time at home. Tasks that used to take ages are now achieved in few minutes, using electricity most of the time. Until the embargos of the 1970s, people cloud without thought of fuel economy or ecological impacts. Aerodynamic designs were have and engine size condensed. More vital was that engines were enhanced to upsurge fuel efficacy with fuel injectors and electronic communications. CO2 emissions are threatening to the world. Hence we are adapting to substituting f uels.We reduce our luxury for the sake of others and energy efficiency. We are using public transport to reduce the energy usage.Thinking conjointly about the present and future is an important step, but reflecting upon changes in the environment should not become an end in itself. Similarly, we do not want to shine a spotlight on the surface while leave the center in the dark. The future is genuinely the result of human will and initiative. Local ecological influences are likely to remain to take superiority over worldwide change in the accomplishment of sustainable energy developments. 17Answer to question 33a) Major changes in the UK affecting the energy during the past 50 years also brought up with them a major technological change. Some may be positive and beneficial but some may be negative and ineffective. Lets talk about them one by one.Restriction on manufacturing new types of nuclear power plants (Sizewell B reactors).These have been the most important challenges for the technologists. They have to find new technologies for producing nuclear energy based on gas-cooled reactors because there is a restriction on building water cooled reactors. They have to build new reactors, storage units etc. this demands a lot of finance to be invested initially. brand-new technologies have to be developed to ensure the safety of the labor in this industry, for example, radiation loathsome safety suits, etc., Gas cooled reactors a second generation British technology reactors which uses graphite as moderator. The advantage of this design is that the coolant can go to high temperature than water. Resulting higher plant efficiency (above 40%) compared to the water cooled design (around 30%). This is recognized as the most important improvement in nuclear technology. 18The Natural gas from the North Sea is being replaced by the gas derived from the Coal.This reduced the pressure on the coal industry. But this demanded new technologies for efficient offshore fuel ex traction stations and for transport. Leak proof, underwater pipelines were a huge burden initially. Refining the fuel gas also introduced new innovations. Progress in offshore technologies is exemplified by advances in production platforms and production systems which highly rely on seismic technology. Drilling technologies have also improved a lot, leading to multilateral and multi branch wells.Floating storage vessels, shuttle tanks and condensation technologies are the most recognized improvements in the transportation technologies. 19Privatization of the coal /electricity industries and British GasAs the technologies of the government are patented, privatization generally introduces new technologies into the respective industries thus causing technological expansion.Promoting renewable energy investment by consumers.Renewable energy investments promoted the developments of technologies in a lower, domestic level. The diffusion of new and renewable technologies is determined by a logistic curve function of two key factors the size of the economic potential and the length of the diffusion process, which are different according to the technology. New and emerging renewable energy technologies include cellulosic ethanol, hot-dry-rock geothermal power, and ocean energy.solar power panels that use nanotechnology, which is used in creating circuits out of individual silicon molecules, will probably cost half as much as traditional photovoltaic cells.The future prospects of electricity needs an innovation of nuclear and wind energies.Since earliest times, man has utilized the power of the wind. The technology has diversified over ages to include pumping water, grinding grain